Top Line

• China test-fired a nuclear-capable missile into the Pacific, prompting Albanese to brand it a "provocative and destabilising" act. Chinese satellite tracking vessels deployed to the region beforehand, and Beijing paired the launch with a Taiwan squeeze under cover of its US trade truce. This is today's must-read.
• The launch reshapes Pacific security politics. Lowy suggests it may hand Albanese leverage on regional partnerships, with Solomon Islands also criticising the test.
• RTX Raytheon is doubling global Stinger production, a signal that Western munitions capacity is finally scaling to demand.
• DroneShield shares rebounded as counter-drone demand builds through 2026.
• Modi meets Albanese, with defence ties central to deepening Indo-Pacific alignment.

Priority Developments

Policy, posture and geopolitics

• Change of Command Parade – Incoming Chief of Joint Capabilities - Air Marshal Glen Braz, AM, CSC, DSM - defence.gov.au — Change of Command Parade - Outgoing Chief of Joint Capabilities - Lieutenant General Susan Coyle, AM, CSC, DSM defence.gov.au (Department of Defence, Home) · Also: Department of Defence, Home, Defence News, Defence Export Controls
• U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Ir - x.com — U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Ir x.com (Defence Australia X)
• Some time ago, we launched the Crimea operation. It includes deep strikes and mid-range strikes. We were slowing down the militarization of our peninsula occupied by Russia: military bases, depots, air defense systems, all the sites from which aircraft take of - x.com — Some time ago, we launched the Crimea operation. It includes deep strikes and mid-range strikes. We were slowing down the militarization of our peninsula occupied by Russia: military bases, depots, air defense systems, all the sites from which aircraft take of x.com (Defence Australia X)
• It is good to welcome my friend @ZelenskyyUa to Ankara Ukraine's security is our security and we have important work to do to make sure you continue to have what you need to defend your freedom - x.com — It is good to welcome my friend @ZelenskyyUa to Ankara Ukraine's security is our security and we have important work to do to make sure you continue to have what you need to defend your freedom x.com (Defence Australia X)
• Olympic Dam Smelter and Refinery Expansion (SRE) Study - Department of Industry Science and Resources — Olympic Dam Smelter and Refinery Expansion (SRE) Study Department of Industry Science and Resources (Department of Industry, Science and Resources)
• Australian Defence Force trying to ‘make ends meet’ as China watches on - Sky News Australia — Australian Defence Force trying to ‘make ends meet’ as China watches on Sky News Australia (Army News)
• Navy's weight of leadership changes hands - defence.gov.au — Navy's weight of leadership changes hands defence.gov.au (Department of Defence, Home)
• RAAF hosts US, Japanese air forces for trilateral exercise - Australian Aviation — RAAF hosts US, Japanese air forces for trilateral exercise Australian Aviation (Air Force News)
• An increasingly contested space: the Pacific seabed and the actors reshaping it — The Pacific seabed is no longer an empty space between nations. It is becoming one of the most strategically crowded environments in the region. That crowding is producing a qualitatively different strategic environment – one ... (The Strategist, ASPI)
• Our support to Ukraine is working, and it remains vital. We must persevere and keep ramping up the pressure on Russia. This is crucial for Ukraine and for Europe’s security. At the NATO Summit President @ZelenskyyUa and I signed a drone deal, in the prese - x.com — Our support to Ukraine is working, and it remains vital. We must persevere and keep ramping up the pressure on Russia. This is crucial for Ukraine and for Europe’s security. At the NATO Summit President @ZelenskyyUa and I signed a drone deal, in the prese x.com (Defence Australia X) · Also: Defence Australia X

Market and industry moves

• Principal Network Engineer - RTX — Principal Software Engineer - Lead Metrics & Tools Specialist - Onsite (CA) RTX (Raytheon Australia) · Also: Raytheon Australia, Raytheon Australia, Raytheon Australia, Raytheon Australia

Emerging technology and dual-use

• News | RTX, NATO advance major expansion of AMRAAM® production capacity - RTX — News | RTX, NATO advance major expansion of AMRAAM® production capacity RTX (Raytheon Australia)
• Carbonix drones granted milestone safety approval - Australian Aviation — Carbonix drones granted milestone safety approval Australian Aviation (Carbonix)
• Fleet Space Partners with Nomad Atomics to Advance Mineral Exploration (Nomad Atomics)
• New DroneShield software targets faster, harder-to-track drones - DroneDJ — New DroneShield software targets faster, harder-to-track drones DroneDJ (DroneShield)

Watchpoints

• Watch how China calibrates pressure on Taiwan under cover of its US trade truce, because Beijing's willingness to test missiles into the Pacific signals it will treat the current window as licence rather than restraint.
• Track whether Albanese's rebuke translates into concrete Pacific security commitments, given the Solomon Islands' parallel criticism and Lowy's suggestion that the missile test may have shifted regional partners toward Canberra.
• Monitor the gap between rising demand signals like doubled Stinger output and DroneShield's counter-drone pipeline, and the ADF's own admission it is straining to make ends meet, because sovereign capacity, not global supply, is now the binding constraint.
• The Modi visit is the one to watch for substance over symbolism, with defence ties the likely test of whether Australia can convert Indo-Pacific goodwill into durable industrial and interoperability outcomes.
• Keep an eye on how expanded US strikes on Iran and Ukraine's deep-strike campaign pull on the same missile and air-defence stockpiles Australia depends on, tightening allied queues just as regional demand climbs.

AusTender Movement — Highest Value Contract Events

• CN4258121  — Department of Defence (NSSG - Maritime Sustainment Division)  — BAE SYSTEMS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD  — Capability Support Survey and Quote Services  — $8,824,861
• CN4258092  — Department of Defence (JSD - EWIS BRANCH)  — INOVOR TECHNOLOGIES PTY LTD  — Engineering Support  — $7,962,380
• CN4258061  — Department of Defence (JCG - Cyber Warfare Division)  — OBSIDIAN DIGITAL PTY LTD  — Project Support Services  — $6,930,000
• CN4258099  — Department of Defence (CASG - Commercial Group)  — RWM ITALIA SPA  — Ammunitions  — $4,337,124
• CN4258108  — Department of Defence (Army Special Operations)  — MARCEL PACIFIC PTY LTD  — Marine Craft  — $3,606,730
• CN4258067  — Department of Defence (DDG - ICTDD)  — THE TRUSTEE FOR TOMSON HOLDING TRUST SOL STAK PTY LTD  — Technical Capability Services  — $3,343,560
• CN4258095  — Department of Defence (Nuclear Powered Submarine Program)  — FRAZER-NASH CONSULTANCY  — Technical Authoring Services  — $2,183,977

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